Fagin's Weather World

KUOW Hike- Granite Lakes

2012-02-12T06:52:00.000-08:00

This road hike is north and east of North Bend and the start of the walk is just past the trail to Mailbox. There is just patchy snow for the first 2.5 miles, thus now snowshoes are needed. This road follows Granite Creek and ends up at Granite Lakes.
Photo below is view from the road, photo by Karen Sykes
Photo below is view from road looking toward north and east, photo by Karen Sykes
Photo below is hiker on road with patchy snow at 2.5 miles in no snowshoes, photo by Karen Sykes
Photo below is Granite Creek, photo by Karen Sykes
Driving Directions: Drive east on I-90 to exit 34 (Edgewick Road). Then you turn left (north) onto 468th Street and follow it to the junction with the Middle Fork Snoqualmie Road (FS 56). Turn right and continue up the Middle Fork Snoqualmie Road about 3 miles you will find a gated road on the right. Park here but do not block gate. You will need a Discover Pass.
Trail Stats: Start at about 800 feet and all the way to the Lake is 5.5 miles one way and 2500 foot gain. However most people just hike 2.5 miles one way and minimal elevation gain and you do not need snowshoes.
Track to Granite Lake thanks to Dennis Long

Weather Cascades extended

2012-02-08T06:37:00.000-08:00

Issued 2-8-2012
Forecast models suggest a return to cool and wet pattern as we move toward the middle of February and more precisely 2-18-2012

KUOW Hike - Clay Creek

2012-02-07T01:11:00.000-08:00

Updated 2-7-2012
Just east of Enumclaw this road walk just has patchy snow and you get views of Mt. Rainier.
Tuesday will be a great day to view Mt. Rainier from this road under mostly sunny and breezy conditions. Chance of light showers for Wednesday and early Thursday. Perhaps Thursday afternoon will be dry with some good views.

Photo below is view of White River from our snack break spot, photo by Alan Bauer

Photo below is hikers on road at about 2600 feet just patchy snow, photo by Alan Bauer
Photo below is view of Mt. Rainier, Photo by Michael Fagin

Photo below is the starting point of this gated road walk Forest Service Rd. 6208, photo by Michael Fagin

Driving Directions: From Enumclaw drive on State Highway 410 east drive past milepost marker 36 and park on the left and look for sign that says road 6208. The start of this is before you get to the small town of Greenwater.

Trail Directions and Track of the hike (thanks Dennis Long)Just follow the main road 6208 and you can go up to 5.5 miles one way to 2800 which is a 1400 foot gain. However you can hike less and still get great view.s

Always bring map and compass and or GPS as these directions are the best estimates.
Also you need a permit from Hancock to access this.

Weather forecast Cascades- Extended

2012-02-01T05:23:00.000-08:00

Issued: 2-1-2012
Starting on Thursday 2-2-2012 forecast models indicate a upper level ridge of high pressure that builds and remains over the region through at least Monday 2-6-2012. So dry conditions will be the rule. However the models are split after that as some want to keep the ridge of high pressure in place for dry conditions through 2-15-2012. However some other models want to break down the ridge of high by 2-8-2012 or 2-9-2012 for a return for wet conditions. Stay tuned
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KUOW - Ski & Snowshoe Trip of the week

2012-01-31T01:49:00.000-08:00

Issued Tuesday 1-31-2012
Snow at about 3000 feet for later Tuesday and early Wednesday with 3 to 6 inches of new snow at Snoq Pass. Then a dry pattern from Thursday through Friday and just a slight chance of a shower late on Friday and Saturday.
Destination: Kendall Peak Viewpoint near Snoqualmie Pass
Photo below is skier headed up towards Kendall Peak viewpoint , photo by Michael Fagin

Photo below are some of the views on the way to Kendall Peak Viewpoint, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below is of Keechelus Lake taken from viewpoint, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below is of Kendall Peak taken from viewpoint, photo by Michael Fagin

Driving directions: From Seattle take Interstate 90 over Snoqualmie Pass to exit 54. Exit I-90, turn left, and cross under the freeway to reach the Gold Creek Sno-Park.
Trail Stats: Viewpoint is before the Kendall Lakes on a small logging spur to the right (south). High point is about 4000 feet and 7 miles roundtrip and a 1600 foot gain.
Trail directions are estimates so please take map and compass and or GPS
Trail Route- Thanks to Randy
http:// http://www.mapmyrun.com/routes/fullscreen/66418846/

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Weather Northwest February 2012

2012-01-25T06:09:00.001-08:00

Issued: 1-25-2012
Some of the forecast models are suggesting that the Northwest gets an upper level ridge of high pressure that builds at times over the next 10 days. The 500 mb map below (18,000 foot level) confirms that. If this pattern verifies the Washington Cascades can be looking at average to below average precipitation starting this Friday 1-27-2012 through 2-4-2012. However just lower to medium confidence in this forecast.

Weather Forecast Washington Cascades

2012-01-18T06:38:00.000-08:00

Issued 1-18-2012
Extended forecast keeps the cool and wet pattern in place for the Washington Cascades. So above average snowfall will be the theme. The map below (500 mb at 18,000 feet) shows a trough of low pressure off the Washington Coast and this will keep the cool and wet pattern in place through January 27, 2012

KUOW- Hike or Snowshoe trip of the week

2012-01-11T02:48:00.000-08:00

Updated 1-11-2012
Tonga Ridge west of Stevens Pass near town of Skykomish. Since we have not had much new snow lately this will probably be hard packed so a snowshoe trip of this might be the best. However starting this Sunday (1-15-2012) and or early next week we should have some new mountain snow. How about lowland snow???
Photo below is conditions at lower part of the road, hard packed, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below is one of the views you start to get looking towards north and west, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below another view looking towards the north and west, photo by Michael Fagin

Photo below is of happy hiker-snowshoer, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below near end of our trip at dusk, photo by Michael Fagin

Driving Directions: Drive east on U.S. Highway 2 toward Stevens Pass. After passing the Skykomish Ranger Station on the left, continue another 0.5 mile and turn right (south) onto Foss River Road (Forest Road 68). Follow this road 3 miles to the junction with FR 6830, and turn left (east) onto FR 6830. Drive up as far on this road as you are comfortable and then find a spot on the side of the road to park. All wheel drive vehicle would be the best to have.
Trail Stats: Tricky as just depends where you park. Could be as low as 2000 feet. Enjoy trip be safe with your judgement of where to park.
Please bring map and compass and or GPS as trail and directions are the best estimates.

KUOW Hike of the week

2012-01-05T02:03:00.000-08:00

Updated 1-5-2012
Saturday should be dry with chance of showers on Sunday. So Friday 1-6 and Saturday 1-7 best chance of dry conditions and views.
Tiger Mt (West Tiger 3) is just east of Issaquah is snowfree now and a good workout. Maybe and I mean maybe a dusting of new snow at the top
Photo below is view of Cascades just below the summit, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below is view of clouds just below the summit, photo by Nick Eckstein
Photo below is some of the wildlife found at summit- Gray Jay, photo by Michael Fagin
Driving Directions: Take I-90 and get off at exit 20 (High Point exit). Then go west along road (parallels I-90) and follow it until you get to gravel road and then go a short distance until you get to trailhead.
Trail Stats: 5 miles round trip, 2100 feet gain, high point 2500 feet. Follow signs to West Tiger 3. Discovery Pass needed to park at trailhead.

Amabilis Mountain

Ski or snowshoe this. This is just about 10 miles east of Snoq Pass. Get there early or go there on Friday.
Photo below is skier going up hill, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below is view from part way up the Mt, photo by Michael Fagin
Driving Directions: Exit 63 off of I-90, Cabin Creek exit.
Trail Stats: Go up FS 4822 which is 8 miles round trip, 2100 feet feet gain, high point is 4550 feet. Sno Park Pass needed to park here.
Driving directions and trail directions are the best estimates. Please bring map and compass and or GPS.

Weather forecast- Washington Cascades Extended

2012-01-04T07:24:00.001-08:00

Issued 1-4-2012
Forecast models continue the pattern of bringing a ridge of high pressure into the region. The map below 500 mb (18,000 foot level) shows a ridge of high pressure over the Northwest for 1-13-2012. This type of pattern will tend to bring below normal mountain snowfall to the region will tend to be the theme.

Washington Cascade weather- extended

2011-12-28T08:22:00.000-08:00

Issued 12-28-2011
Forecast models out to January 10, 2012 are indicating above average temperatures and above average precipitation. Basically the Northwest will be in a westerly flow and this will bring in weather systems and associated precipitation on and off over the first 10 days of the year. Also this will bring higher freezing levels at times above 5000 feet.

KUOW: Hike of the Week- Poo Poo Point

2011-12-23T01:05:00.000-08:00

Updated 12-23-2011
Poo Poo Point
This is just several miles south of Issaquah. Driest day on a relative basis will be Friday (12-23) and Saturday (12-24) probably afternoon. Mostly cloudy this weekend so views will be somewhat limited. Rumor has it that "poo poo” sound made by loggers' steam whistles.
Photo below is view of Mt. Rainier from the top of Poo Poo point photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below is view of the Olympics from the top, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below is view of Lake Sammamish, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below is paraglider enjoying the views and the ride, photo below by Michael Fagin

Directions to Trail:Take I-90 to Issaquah, take Front Street exit. Follow Front Street through town for about 3 miles. Front street becomes Hobart-Issaquah Road. If you are driving south the trailhead is on the left (east side of the street) near a big grass field.
Trail stats: 4 miles round trip with about 2000 foot gain

Weather Washington Cascades Exteneded

2011-12-21T09:04:00.000-08:00

Updated 12-21-2011.
Starting this weekend and continuing for much of next week the weather patterns will change. The ridge of high pressure that has been bringing the relatively dry pattern for much of December will shift out of the region. The new pattern that we will get is a zonal flow westerly flow which will bring moisture in and out of the region. With this pattern above normal precipitation and snowfall will be the pattern towards the end of December. The map below (500 mb- 18,000 feet) indicates this. This map is for the period 12-28-2011 through 1-3-2012

Weather Washington Cascades

2011-12-13T06:03:00.000-08:00

Issued Tuesday 12-13-2011
Forecast models continue to bring a ridge of high pressure at times over Washington state. See map below which is the average position of the 500 mb (about 18,000 feet). This is for the period 12-18 to 12-22 and indicates a ridge of high pressure over Washington. This type of pattern will bring below normal snowfall for the Cascades. La Nina is suppose to bring above average snowfall right? Generally yes however the biggest impacts of the snowfall usually come later in the winter, generally January and beyond.

KUOW- Bessemer Mountain Saddle

2011-12-09T01:00:00.000-08:00

Updated 12-9-2011. Weather this weekend light showers later on Saturday and into early Sunday.
This trailhead is near North Bend Washington. It is a logging road walk that takes you up to saddle at about 4100 feet. We suggest that you DO NOT go up to the top of the Mountain as there might be avalanche issues. Besides snowshoeing to the saddle is about 3000 foot gain which is a big workout in itself.
Photo below is of a moss draped tree on lower portion of logging road, photo by Michael Fagin

Photo below is one of the waterfalls, photo by Michael Fagin

Photo below is snowshoe on the way up, photo by Michael Fagin

Photo below is at the saddle at about 4100 feet, photo by Michael Fagin

Photo below is of Russian Buttes west (view towards the west), photo by Michael Fagin

Driving Directions: From Seattle, drive east on I-90 to exit 34 and turn left (north) onto 468th Street and follow it to the junction with the Middle Fork Snoqualmie Road (Forest Road 56). Turn right and continue up the Middle Fork Snoqualmie Road for 7.4 miles park at gated road on the left. Gate is marked "905 " and it is blue. You need discovery pass as this is state land DNR.
Trail Stats: About 3000 foot gain high point is 4100 feet. About 10 miles roundtrip. Start on logging road and walk about a mile and then turn right on logging road, going left takes you on an old hiking trail which you do not want. Basically continue to follow logging road and follow it uphill until you reach saddle at about 4100 feet. Do not go to the summit, safe that for the summer. Saddle at Location GPS way points
Latitude: 47.545972º N
Longitude: 121.618268º W
Altitude: 4,077 ft
Thanks George for GPS waypoints.

Please bring map and compass and or GPS as these directions are just estimates.
Hike for MPF

Weather Cascasdes Extended

2011-12-07T06:00:00.001-08:00

Issued December 7, 2011
Ridge of high pressure will continue to be the prime weather feature over the Northwest. With this pattern below normal snowfall will be the rule through the period. The map below is the 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) and this indicates the ridge over the region through December 17.

Weather forecast Cascades - Early December

2011-11-30T06:11:00.000-08:00

Issued 11-30-2011.
Starting on 12-1-2011 and continuing through 12-9-2011 forecast models bring a ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft. This pattern will bring below normal temperatures and below normal mountain snowfall. Basically weather systems and the associate snow will be steered to the north and south of the Washington Cascades. We might get a few weak weather systems that try to move into bring some light snowfall but light snowfall if any is the main message.
The map below is the 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet)and this indicates a ridge of high pressure off our coast and this pattern usually brings mostly dry conditions.

KUOW Hike- Wednesday 11-23-2011

2011-11-23T05:45:00.000-08:00

Issued Wednesday 11-23-2011
With high avalanche danger posted in the mountains the Fragrance Lake hike (near Bellingham) would be a good hike for this coming Thanksgiving weekend. At this point best chance to get good views is Friday 11-25-2011 late morning or afternoon.
If you want some music with sunshine in lyrics check out links at bottom.Photo below is view of Bellingham Bay from viewpoint, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below is also from viewpoint with view of Lummi, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below is of Fragrance Lake, photo by Michael Fagin

Photo below is also of Fragrance Lake, photo by Michael Fagin

Driving directions: From Seattle take I-5 and exit 231 and take the follow Route 11 (Chuckanut Drive) north for above 15 miles. Lot will be on the right. The trailhead is on right side of the road just after the campground entrance to Larrabee State Park.
Trail stats: Roundtrip 5.5 miles with elevation gain of 1000 feet, high point 1100 feet.
Driving and trial directions are best estimates so always bring map and compass and or GPS.

You are the Sunshine of My Heart- just for you Melissa http:// www.bing.com/videos/search?q=you+are+the+sunshine+of+my+heart&mid=4188DE0C03D30CF42CBB4188DE0C03D30CF42CBB&view=detail&FORM=VIRE1
Somewhere over the Rainbow
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=V-hmypa3wuA

Links for Holiday Travels

Washington Department of Transportation- or call 511
http://http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/
Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center or call 206-526-6677
http://www.nwac.us/

KUOW Hike of the Week- Little Si

2011-11-17T06:00:00.000-08:00

Updated 11-18-2011. With lower snow levels and snow still unconsoidated (makes snowshoeing very difficult) this lower elevation trail will just have some patch snow in places. You can try Big Si but you will find plenty of snow at the top.
This trialhead is just east of the main part of North Bend.
Photo below is hiker on lower part of trail, photo by Karen Sykes
Photo below is view of Fuller Mt., photo by Karen Sykes

Photo below is view of "Big Si" from Little Si, photo by Karen Sykes

Driving Directions: Drive I-90 to North Bend and take exit 31 into town. Then drive east on North Bend Way and turn left on Mount Si Road (432nd SE). Drive .25 miles to the new parking lot.
Trail Stats: Gain is 1200 feet and 5 miles roundtrip. High point is 1576 feet.
All trail information is estimate so please bring map and compass and or GPS.

List of snowshoe and or cross country ski routes
Bessemer- west of Snoqualmie Pass
Mt Washington west of Snoqualmie Pass
Rampart Ridge- Mt Rainier National Park
Pipe Creek- Near Blewett Pass
Wenatchee Ridge Near Blwett Pass
Gold Creek- At Snoqualmie Pass
Sun Top Look Out – Near Crystal Mt
Mowich Lake- Mt Rainier National Park
Lanham Lake- Near Stevens
Mt Tenerife- Near Mt Si

Washington Cascades Outlook end of November

2011-11-16T06:33:00.001-08:00

Issued 11-16-2011. The extended outlook for the Washington Cascades and Olympics towards the end of November is above average snowfall. The map below is the 500 mb chart (at about 18,000 feet) This indicates a trough of low pressure off our the Washington Coast and this would support cool and wet conditions.

Extended Outlook Washington Cascades

2011-11-09T06:57:00.000-08:00

Issued 11-9-2011
Extended models indicate below normal temperatures will be the rule through November 18. The map below is the 500 mb (18,000 feet level) show a cold trough of low pressure over the region. Thus should be getting snowfall in the Cascades.

Contest & Cascade & Olympic Snowfall 2011-2012

2011-11-03T05:37:00.000-07:00

CONTEST

Hints
1. During the week of 11-7-2011 forecast models are suggesting about 10 inches on new snow at Paradise (light amounts late Monday and early Tuesday) Then additional snowfall on Friday, 2. On 11-5-2011 there was 4 inches of snow on the ground at Paradise. For the same time last year there was 16 inches, 3. Extended forecasts for 11-13 to 11-19 brings below normal temperatures will normal to slightly above normal snowfall.
First place prize: New waterproof, lightweight Platypus Origin 5 hydration pack designed to keep you comfortably hydrated on half- or ultralight full-day excursions. Features a 2L Platypus Big Zip SL reservoir plus 5L of gear storage http://cascadedesigns.com/platypus/hydration-packs/origin-5/product

Second place prize. Backpacking Washington, By Craig Romano
http://www.amazon.com/Backpacking-Washington-Overnight-Multi-Day-Routes/dp/1594851107/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1318184187&sr=1-1" />

Northwest Winter Discussion Issued 11-3-2011Several of the major organizations that issue extended winter forecasts are calling for above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures, and with that combination we usually get above normal mountain snowfall. Ocean temperatures play a large role in these long-range forecasts. El Nino winters result when sea surface temperatures are above normal, while La Nina can happen with below normal sea surface temperatures. Forecasters are indicating that we are now in a La Nina phase since the sea surface temperatures have been and are forecasted to be at least 0.50 C (0.9 F) below normal. Under normal La Nina patterns the jet stream and the associated storm track is aimed at the Pacific Northwest.

With the La Nina forecast I have noticed skiers dancing in the streets. The number one question on everyone’s mind is are we guaranteed lots of mountain snow for this winter? One answer is a definite maybe and here is why. Looking at the nineteen most recent La Nina events the snowfall at Paradise Ranger Station at Mt. Rainier (5500 feet), fourteen had above normal snowfall and five were below. We get similar results when we look at Stampede Pass (4000 feet near Snoqualmie Pass) looking at thirteen recent La Nina events of which eight were above normal snowfall and five below. Thus the odds are good of getting above normal snowfall but by no means guaranteed.

The International Research Institute (ITI) which is part of The Earth Columbia Institute has some reservations on this guarantee of above average snowfall. They indicate a 60% chance of La Nina but a 40% chance of neutral conditions. Furthermore the IRI indicates some major forecast models suggesting non La Nina conditions. Thus IRI places some doubt on the La Nina.

The other major forecast is from Climate Prediction Center (CPC- part of US Government NOAA) and states that for the Pacific Northwest we will be colder and wetter than average. However the report goes on to state that there is a wildcard to this. The wildcard comes from other major weather patterns that could interact with La Nina throughout the course of a long winter. According to the CPC, “this seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.”
Map below is typical weather patterns for La Nina (forecasted for 2011-2012 winter)

Outlook mid November 2011 Washington Cascades

2011-11-01T06:19:00.000-07:00

Forecast models are all in agreement between now and the middle of November that the Cascades will have below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. So there will be a build up of snowpack for the Washington Cascades

KUOW Hike of the Week- Contest

2011-10-28T01:15:00.000-07:00

This was updated on Friday October 28. This hike is in Mt. Rainier National Park and the trailhead is off of Hwy 410 east of Enumclaw. There might be some patchy snow on the ground near the Upper Lake so a ski pole and some good hiking boots would be an excellent idea. Access to this trailhead closes near Thanksgiving time. For the best chance of views of Mt. Rainier Saturday would be better than Sunday. Chance of light morning showers on Saturday and steady precipitation for Sunday.
Photo below is view of the Upper Crystal Lake, photo by Karen Sykes
Photo below is view of Rainier less than one mile into hike, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below is view of Mt. Rainier from above Upper Crystal Lake, photo below is by Michael Fagin
Photo below is view of Upper Crystal Lake from trail above the lake, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below is some of the fall colors at the basin near Upper Crystal Lake, photo by Karen Sykes

Photo below are more fall colors at the basin at Upper Crystal Lake, photo by Karen Sykes

Trail stats: 6 miles round trip with 2,300 feet of gain
Driving Directions: From Enumclaw drive SR 410 east toward Chinook Pass -- the trailhead is 4.5 miles past the entrance to Mt Rainier National Park or about 42 miles east of Enumclaw. Parking on both sides of the road. The map is Green Trails No. 270 Mount Rainier East.
Trail and driving directions provided by Karen Sykes as well as some of the photos. Trail stats and driving directions are our best estimates so please drive a map and or a GPS
CONTEST

Question How much snow will be on the ground at Paradise Ranger Station on 12-1-2011 at 1 am.
Rules: 1 Winner is the first person who has entered with the correct guess or closest guess, 2. In the event of a tie the winner is first who has entered with the correct guess or closest guess, 3. One guess per family, 4. Guesses must be in by November 7, 2011 by 1 am and email them to
enter guess here
First place prize: New waterproof, lightweight Platypus Origin 5 hydration pack designed to keep you comfortably hydrated on half- or ultralight full-day excursions. Features a 2L Platypus Big Zip SL reservoir plus 5L of gear storage http://cascadedesigns.com/platypus/hydration-packs/origin-5/product

Weather forecast and extended early November

2011-10-26T06:41:00.000-07:00

Weather for the Northwest for the period November 2 through November 8 is calling for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The map below is the 500 mb map (18,000 feet) for this period and this indicates a zonal flow. Zonal flow is a westerly flow to bring weather systems in and out of the region. However, with this pattern we will still expect some dry weather is we get some brief ridges of high pressure that build from time to time.

Contest & Extended Weather

2011-10-17T07:01:00.001-07:00

CONTEST

Extended Outlook
Map below is 500 mb (at about 18,000 feet) for Friday October 28. This indicates a ridge of high pressure that rebuilds over the west. With this pattern we can expect above average temperatures with below average precipitation. This seems to be the pattern as we move form 10-28 to 11-1.

KUOW Hike of the Week- Easton Ridge- Contest

2011-10-14T01:48:00.000-07:00

Updated: Friday October 14, 2011
With snow on the ground close to 5000 feet in many locations this hike is great as it is snowfree. This hike is located about 16 miles east of Snoqualmie Pass near Lake Easton. This weekend will bring some clouds and slight chance of a few showers but if any showers should be light. Bonus hike, Rachel Lake, scroll to the end
Photo below is typical fall colors, photo by Alan Bauer
Photo below is hikers going up small knob, photo by Alan Bauer

Photo below is view of Easton Lake, Photo by Karen Sykes

Photo below is summit meeting on top of Easton Ridge, photo by Karen Sykes

Driving Directions:
From Seattle drive I-90 east and get off at Exit 70. Proceed over the freeway and turn left onto frontage road (signed Kachess Dam Road), continue to Forest Service Road No. 4818 and turn right. Stay on Road No. 4818 to an unsigned road junction, turn right, continue to the trailhead, elevation 2,400 feet (it is also the trailhead for Kachess Ridge). For Easton Ridge turn right on a path to Silver Creek, a few paces upstream you’ll find the bridge. A Northwest Forest Pass is required.

Trail stats: From the trailhead to the rocky outcroppings on the ridge crest it is approximately 7 miles round-trip with about 1,700-1,900 feet elevation gain. High point is at about 4500 feet.
Driving directions and trail stats by Karen Sykes
Remember this information is our best estimation so you should have a current map and or GPS to assist you.

CONTEST

Rachel Lake
Photo below is just one example of all the colors, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below is view of Hibox Mounatain (6500 feet), notice new snow at about 5000 feet and above, photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below shows more fall colors at their peak, photo by Maria Lamarca Anderson

Driving Directions
From Seattle take I-90 east to exit 62 (signed "Kachess Lake"). Turn left from the exit ramp and drive northeast and follow the signs to Lake Kachess Campground. Turn left on FR 4930, which goes about 4 miles to a large parking lot and the trailhead at the road's end.

Trail stats
Roundtrip 8.0 miles
Elevation Gain 1600 feet
Highest Point 4600 feet

Weather Washington Cascades October 20, 2011

2011-10-12T13:53:00.001-07:00

Forecast models are indicating a flat ridge of high pressure for the period October 20 to October 26. This type of pattern will lead to average to above average temperatures with close to average precipitation. The map below is at the 500 mb level (close to 18,000 to 19,000 feet) indicates this. Notice the ridge just east of Washington and a trough of low pressure to the west of Washington.

Weather outlook- pattern to October 15

2011-10-05T07:00:00.000-07:00

An active storm track over the Pacific Northwest will keep temperatures below normal and precipitation above normal as we move towards the middle of the month.

Weather Forecast Outlook 10-5 to 10-11

2011-09-28T08:25:00.000-07:00

Extended models for the period October 5 to October 11 are indicating below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. This trend is indicated with the trough of low pressure that is off the Washington. This is depicted by the 500 mb chart below (about 18,000 foot level)

Weather Northwest End of September- Extended

2011-09-21T08:25:00.000-07:00

Issued 9-21-2011
Models indicate above average temperatures and average precipitation for the mountains in Washington state for the last week of September 2011.

KUOW Hike of the Week: Palisades Lakes Trail

2011-09-16T02:05:00.000-07:00

Updated Friday 9-16-2011. Hike at Mt. Rainier National Park via Sunrise entrance. Wildflowers are still out.Weekend weather brings chances of rain on Saturday 9-17 but with some brief dry periods for the afternoon. Sunday 9-18 forecast brings higher chance of rain and breezy conditions at times. If you want to hike in a relatively drier location try in the East Cascades like Iron Bear and do it on Saturday 9-17.
Photo below is of the Upper Palisades Lake, photo by Michael Fagin

Photo below is of lupine flowers in the meadows,photo by Michael Fagin

Photo below is of the Palisades rock formation, photo by Michael Fagin

Trail stats: 7 miles round trip. High point 6150 feet and with the ups and downs there is a cumulative gain for the entire day of about 2000 feet.
Driving directions: Enter Mt. Rainier National Park via White River Campground entrance and drive up towards Sunrise and just before the Sunrise Visitor Center park at the Sunrise Point trailhead.
Directions and trail stats are our best estimate however please have a good local map and or a GPS unit.

KUOW Hike of the Week: Iron Bear

2011-09-15T18:06:00.000-07:00

Updated 9-16-2011. We visited this hike in June but offer this hike as a second option to the Palisades Lakes hike since there will be less chance of rain for Iron Bear on Saturday 9-17. However even on Sunday 9-18 there will be a chance of rain for this hike. This is located in the East Cascades near Cle Elum. Photos and hike description provided by Karen Sykes.

Photo below is Mt. Stuart

Photo below is Michael taking a nap with a view of the Stuart Range

Iron Bear

Getting there: Drive east on Interstate 90 to state Route 97. About two miles north of Mineral Springs, look for Forest Service Road No. 9714 (Iron Creek Road) going off to the left (west). Continue about 3.5 miles to road's end and the trailhead and parking at 3,600 feet. In early May, a snow patch blocked the rock about 1/8 mile from the end.

Trail data: From the trailhead to the high point (5489 feet) is about 6.4 miles round trip.
Directions and trail stats are our best estimate however please have a good local map and or a GPS unit.

Northwest Forecast end of September

2011-09-14T07:56:00.001-07:00

Issued September 14, 2011. The forecast models are indicating some changes starting this weekend with chance of moderate precipitation on Sunday (9-18) and there will be changes towards the end of the month.
The map below is for the period 9-21 to 9-27 and is the 500 mb map (for levels 18,000 to 19,000 feet). The map shows the average position of the trough of low pressure which is off the Washington Coast. This type of pattern indicates above average precipitation for the Northwest.

KUOW Hike of the Week- Norse Peak

2011-09-02T02:31:00.000-07:00

Updated September 2, 2011, Norse Peak, near Crystal Mt
We are expecting a mostly sunny holiday weekend from Saturday September 3 through Monday September 5. This is one of two hikes we have the other one is Source Lake near Snoqualmie Pass . The Norse Peak trialhead is near Crystal Mt(near Mt. Rainier) and this old Lookout offers great views of Mt. Rainier. A few flowers might still be found at the higher elevations.
Photo below is views of Mt. Rainier that you get on the way up photo by Michael Fagin
Photo below is flower in the rocks, photo by Maria Lamarca Anderson
Photo below the view of Mt. Rainier up close!Photo by Maria Lamarca Anderson

Driving Directions: From Enumclaw drive east on State Route 410 past the town of Greenwater and turn left on Crystal Mt Road. Drive 4.2 miles past milepost 4 to the fork at Gold Hill Road (which is not marked). Turn left and park on this road (next to Crytal Mt Road) and walk the road about .25 mile up (unmarked Gold Hill road) and you will find the Norse Peak trailhead on the left hand side which is also not marked.
Trail Stats: Hike Norse Peak number 1191 to the top which is about 5.5 miles or about 11 miles which is an elevation Gain 2800 ft and high point of 6858 feet.
Directions and trail stats are our best estimate however please have a good local map and or a GPS unit.
Trail Passes Needed
1. Washington State permit This provides access to state parks and recreation lands
Yearly fee $30
The fine for not displaying the pass is $99.
To get information on purchasing the pass http://www.discoverpass.wa.gov

2. Annual Northwest PassYearly fee $30 To get information on purchasing the pass

http://www. fs.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsinternet/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3gDfxMDT8MwRydLA1cj72DTUE8TAwgAykeaxRtBeY4WBv4eHmF-YT4GMHn8usNB9uHXDzYBB3A00PfzyM9N1S_IjTDIMnFUBADW0rdA/dl3/d3/L2dJQSEvUUt3QS9ZQnZ3LzZfMjAwMDAwMDBBODBPSEhWTjJNMDAwMDAwMDA!/?navtype=TOPNAVIGATION&cid=fsbdev2_027010&navid=200100000000000&pnavid=200000000000000&ss=1106&position=Not Yet Determined.Html&ttype=detail&pname=Region 6- Passes

3. Interagency PassCovers all national parks and national forest
$80 a year For information on this pass visit
http://www.fs.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsinternet/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3gjAwhwtDDw9_AI8zPyhQoYAOUjMeXDfODy-HWHg-zDrx8kb4ADOBro-3nk56bqF-RGGGSZOCoCAPi8eX8!/dl3/d3/L2dJQSEvUUt3QS9ZQnZ3LzZfME80MEkxVkFCOTBFMktTNVVJNDAwMDAwMDA!/?navtype=BROWSEBYSUBJECT&cid=stelprdb5150035&navid=200100000000000&pnavid=200000000000000&ss=1106&position=Not Yet Determined.Html&ttype=detailfull&pname=Region 6- Recreation Passes

4. Senor pass 62 years or older
$10.00 lifetime fee. Honored nationwide at all Forest Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Bureau of Reclamation, and US Fish & Wildlife Service sites. For information
http://www. fs.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsinternet/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3gDfxMDT8MwRydLA1cj72DTUE8TAwgAykeaxRtBeY4WBv4eHmF-YT4GMHn8usNB9uHXDzYBB3A00PfzyM9N1S_IjTDIMnFUBADW0rdA/dl3/d3/L2dJQSEvUUt3QS9ZQnZ3LzZfME80MEkxVkFCOTBFMktTNVVJNDAwMDAwMDA!/?navtype=BROWSEBYSUBJECT&cid=stelprdb5150306&navid=200100000000000&pnavid=200000000000000&ss=1106&position=Not Yet Determined.Html&ttype=detailfull&pname=Region 6- Recreation Passes

KUOW Hike of the Week - Source Lake

2011-09-02T01:26:00.000-07:00
Updated September 2, 2011, Source Lake. Snoqualmie Pass
We are expecting a mostly sunny holiday weekend from Saturday September 3 through Monday September 5. Most people go to Snow Lake but instead of Snow Lake one can go to Source Lake for an easy hike and great views. This is one of two hikes this week, other is Norse Peak near Crystal Mt. Photo below is junction in which one can go to Source Lake or Snow Lake
Photo below is kids (and moms) enjoying the hike
Photo below is snow still on the higher ridges
Photo below is cascading of all the snow melt

Photo below is view from Source Lake Overlook towards the Kaleetan Peak
Photo below is of wildflowers of course

Driving Directions: From Seattle drive east on I-90 to exit 52. Turn left (north), and continue to the end of the road at the Alpental Ski Area parking lot.

Trail Stats: Hike about 2.5 miles junction with Snow Lake Trail (to right) and go straight another .50 mile to overlook of Source Lake. Total miles 3 one way 6 round trip. Elevation gain of about 700 feet.

Directions and trail stats are our best estimate however please have a good local map and or a GPS unit.

Trail Passes Needed
1. Washington State permit This provides access to state parks and recreation lands
Yearly fee $30
The fine for not displaying the pass is $99.
To get information on purchasing the pass http://www.discoverpass.wa.gov

2. Annual Northwest PassYearly fee $30 To get information on purchasing the pass
http://www. fs.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsinternet/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3gDfxMDT8MwRydLA1cj72DTUE8TAwgAykeaxRtBeY4WBv4eHmF-YT4GMHn8usNB9uHXDzYBB3A00PfzyM9N1S_IjTDIMnFUBADW0rdA/dl3/d3/L2dJQSEvUUt3QS9ZQnZ3LzZfMjAwMDAwMDBBODBPSEhWTjJNMDAwMDAwMDA!/?navtype=TOPNAVIGATION&cid=fsbdev2_027010&navid=200100000000000&pnavid=200000000000000&ss=1106&position=Not Yet Determined.Html&ttype=detail&pname=Region 6- Passes

3. Interagency PassCovers all national parks and national forest
$80 a year For information on this pass visit
http://www.fs.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsinternet/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3gjAwhwtDDw9_AI8zPyhQoYAOUjMeXDfODy-HWHg-zDrx8kb4ADOBro-3nk56bqF-RGGGSZOCoCAPi8eX8!/dl3/d3/L2dJQSEvUUt3QS9ZQnZ3LzZfME80MEkxVkFCOTBFMktTNVVJNDAwMDAwMDA!/?navtype=BROWSEBYSUBJECT&cid=stelprdb5150035&navid=200100000000000&pnavid=200000000000000&ss=1106&position=Not Yet Determined.Html&ttype=detailfull&pname=Region 6- Recreation Passes

4. Senor pass 62 years or older
$10.00 lifetime fee. Honored nationwide at all Forest Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Bureau of Reclamation, and US Fish & Wildlife Service sites.. For information http://www. fs.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsinternet/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3gDfxMDT8MwRydLA1cj72DTUE8TAwgAykeaxRtBeY4WBv4eHmF-YT4GMHn8usNB9uHXDzYBB3A00PfzyM9N1S_IjTDIMnFUBADW0rdA/dl3/d3/L2dJQSEvUUt3QS9ZQnZ3LzZfME80MEkxVkFCOTBFMktTNVVJNDAwMDAwMDA!/?navtype=BROWSEBYSUBJECT&cid=stelprdb5150306&navid=200100000000000&pnavid=200000000000000&ss=1106&position=Not Yet Determined.Html&ttype=detailfull&pname=Region 6- Recreation Passes

Weather for the Northwest for early September

2011-08-30T17:08:00.000-07:00
The extended forecast forecast models are in agreement as they bring a strong ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft to the Northwest and the entire West Coast. The map below is for September 9 and this is the 500 mb map (at about 18,000 to 19,000 foot level) and you will notice a strong ridge of high pressure that covers the entire West Coast. This ridge brings warm and dry conditions for the Northwest. In fact some models suggest this warm and dry pattern continues through September 13.

Weather for the Northwest till early September

2011-08-23T06:59:00.000-07:00
Forecast models continue the pattern of above average temperatures. The map below is the average position and height at the 500 mb level (18,000 to 19,000 feet). This supports the above average temperatures as a strong ridge of high pressure builds from the southwest and this brings dry and warm conditions to much of the west.

Weather Northwest 7 to 10 days

2011-08-17T07:50:00.000-07:00
Issued August 17.
The map below is the average position and heights of the 500 mb level (usually found at 18,000 to 19,000 feet). This is the average position from August 24 to August 30 and this is a typical summer pattern for the West. Dry and warm conditions as we have a strong ridge of high pressure that will build in from the south and west.

Weather for Northwest 7 to 10 days out to August 19

2011-08-10T07:29:00.000-07:00
The forecast for the period of August 15 to August 19 brings below average temperatures and above average precipitation. This pattern is represented by the average position of the 500 mb map below (at about 18,000 to 19,000 feet). The map continues the pattern that we have seen for most of this summer with a trough of low pressure off the West Coast. In fact forecast models suggest that this pattern continues through August 23. The main message with this forecast is below temperatures and precipitation should be limited given the time of year in which precipitation is generally light.

KUOW Hike of the Week

2011-08-05T06:39:00.000-07:00
Updated Friday August 5, 2011, Thorp Mountain Lookout near Salmon La Sac. With a mostly sunny weekend in the forecast this lookout will offer great views of Mt. Rainier, Mount Stuart and Mount Daniel. Also lots of wildflowers, but they are at their peak now. Might still be a random snow patch near the top but most of the snow is gone. There are two trailheads to this lookout the most direct goes via Knox Creek Trail but road is narrow in places so your car might get a scratch or two from brushes. If that is an issue take option 2 trailhead which is a little longer hike.
Photo below is view of the Stuart Range

Photo below is view of Thorp Lake

Photo below is Thorp Lookout

Photo below is view of Cascades

Photo below is one of the many wildflowers

Thorp Mountain Lookout via Knox Creek Trail

Driving Directions:From Seattle drive east on I-90 to take exit 80. Go north on Salmon la Sac Road (State Route 903) about 15 miles and just past the upper end of the lake, turn left onto French Cabin Road (Forest Road 4308). Drive about 3.25 miles past FS 4312 and continue about 1.6 miles on FS 4308 and then turn right on FS Road 120 and proceed about 2 miles to the Knox Creek Trailhead on the right.
Trail Stats Knox Creek: Hike Knox Creek Trail number 1315.1 and go 1.3 miles then come to trail junction and turn right on trail number 1315 and go additional 1.2 miles to the lookout. Total 1654 foot elevation gain and the high point at 5854 feet. Total miles one way of 2.5 miles or 5 miles round trip
Directions and trail stats are our best estimate however please have a good local map and or a GPS unit

Option Two Thorp Mountain Lookout via Thorp Creek Trail

Driving Directions:From Seattle drive east on I-90 to take exit 80. Go north on Salmon la Sac Road (State Route 903) about 15 miles and just past the upper end of the lake, turn left onto French Cabin Road (Forest Road 4308). Drive about 3.25 miles turn right on FS 4312 and drive about 1.25 miles to FS 121 and park by gate. Walk a short distance to trail 1316.
Trail Stats Thorp Creek Trail: Hike Thorp Creek Trail number 1316 and go 3 miles and then come to trail junction and turn left on trail number 1315 and go additional 0.5 miles to the lookout. Total 2354 foot elevation gain and the high point at 5854 feet. Total miles one way of 3.5 miles or 7 miles round trip
Directions and trail stats are our best estimate however please have a good local map and or a GPS unit.
Photos by Michael Fagin

7 day forecast Northwest

2011-08-03T08:50:00.000-07:00
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft is set up over the Northwest and this will be the rule through at least August 10 and with this pattern dry and warm conditions can be expected. The map below (500 mb- at 18,000 to 19,000 foot level) is indicative of summer type for the West Coast as we have a strong ridge (labeled "H") off the coast of California.

6 to 10 day weather Northwest- Cascades

2011-07-25T14:02:00.000-07:00
The Northwest continues under of a trough of low pressure that will be off our coast at times over the next 6 to 10 day period. Thus, the weather patterns for the July 31to August 4 period will feature below normal temperatures. However, with these patterns we will have some days that are above average but this cool weather regime will be the main theme.
The map below depicts this cool pattern as this has the mean position of the 500 mb map (18,000 to 19,000 foot level) which has the trough of low pressure off the Washington Coast. This feature, the trough of low pressure, tends to control the weather patterns to a large extent. This forecast was issued on July 26, 2011.

KUOW Hike of the Week- Friday July 22

2011-07-22T20:12:00.000-07:00
This weekend will bring dry and mostly sunny conditions for the West and East Cascades. The reason that this hike in the Teanaway region (near Cle Elum) is suggested is that there isn't any snow and the wildflowers are at their peak. Also this hike offers some great views of the Stuart Mountain range. This hike is the Johnson-Medra Trail.

Photo below is Lupine and Indian Paintbrush photo by Karen Sykes

Photo below is hiker enjoying the wildflowers photo by Karen Sykes
Photo below is a view of some of the Stuart Range photo by Don Cairns
Photo below is Lupine photo by Karen Sykes

Trail directions: Drive I-90 and exit in Cle Elum (exit 85) and take State Route 970 east and drive 7 miles and then turn left on Teanaway Road which then becomes North Fork Teanaway then at 12.5 miles is the 29 Pines Campground and so slightly to the right onto Forest Service Road 9737 which is a gravel road. Then go drive about 4 miles and you come to Beverly Campground and continue a short distance past this camp and you will see a very small parking area on the right and park here as the Jonhson-Medra Trail (number 1383) is to your left. If you have driven to the end of the road you have driven too far.

Trail stats: 2300 foot gain and 8 miles round trip

Directions and trail stats are our best estimate however please have a good local map and or a GPS unit

Weather 7 to 10 day for the Northwest

2011-07-20T07:52:00.001-07:00
Will the cool pattern to continue? Only 3 days has the average temperature in Seattle been at least 2 degrees above normal. Also during this period the average temperature departure from normal has been 1.2 degrees (F) below normal. Why? The map below is a 500 mb chart (at about 18,000 to 19,000 foot level) and this has a trough of low pressure just to our north and this is for the date July 28. This has been the weather theme for much of the summer as a trough of low pressure has been anchored over the Northwest and this usually brings below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
The standard joke use to be summer in Seattle begins July 5 well this year it was 84 on July 6 so maybe summer ended on July 6.

7 to 10 day weather for the Northwest

2011-07-15T08:11:00.000-07:00
The map below is the 500 mb map (at about 18,000 to 19,000 foot level). The forecast is for July 25 and the forecast indicates a trough of low pressure once again off the Washington Coast. The net impact of this pattern is cool and wet. This for some reason has been a constant weather theme this summer.

KUOW Hike of the Week July 8

2011-07-07T11:00:00.000-07:00
The weekend forecast is calling for some low clouds at times for the West Cascades. Also many of the popular trials in the West Cascades snow covered to some extend. So for more sun and more snowfree hikes the East Cascades is a good bet. Thus the Jungle Creek Hike in the Teanaway region (close to Cle Elum) would be a good option.
Rock Mt Trail- East of Stevens Pass

Photo below is Penstemon

Photo below is hiker enjoying mountain views to the southwest

Driving Directions to Rock Mt Trail
From Seattle drive to Stevens Pass via US 2, continue east about 8.5 miles, pass highway maintenance sheds (left) and just past milepost 73 turn left onto a gravel road to trailhead parking, elevation 2,600 feet, no facilities. A NW Forest Pass is not required for this hike. Allow about 2 hours, 15 minutes drive time from Seattle.
Trail Stats
From US 2 to Rock Mountain it is about 4,200 feet gain and 11 miles roundtrip.

Jungle Creek Trail- Near Cle Elum
Photo below is Columbine

Photo below view of Mt Stuart

Driving directions to Jungle Creek Trail
From Seattle drive east on I-90 over Snoqualmie Pass to Exit 85, east of Cle Elum. Cross over the freeway overpass and turn north (right) onto State Route 970 (north). Continue about five miles and turn left onto Teanaway River Road and continue until the pavement ends (about 13 miles), at 29 Pines Campground. Turn left just beyond the campground on Road 9701 (Jungle Creek Road) and continue about 1.5 miles to the road where it is blocked by a washout. Walk to the trailhead (indicated by a post on the right hand side of the road) about a half-mile from the washout, no facilities.
Trail stats:
From the Jungle Creek washout to the Jungle Creek trailhead and up to the 4,500 foot trail junction with the Way Creek/Johnson Creek trail it is about 6 miles round trip with about 1,500 feet elevation gain.

Photos and driving directions and trails stats provided by Karen Sykes

Weather Outlook 8 to 14 day Seattle - Northwest

2011-07-05T12:59:00.000-07:00
The 8 to 14 day forecast from July 13 to July 19 is indicating average temperatures and normal precipitation and precipitation is normally very low this time of the year. For instance Seattle only gets 0.79 inches of rain for the entire month of July.

The map below is the average position of the 500 mb chart (about 19,000 feet level) and is map is indicating a flat ridge of high pressure over the West Coast which brings close to average temperatures

7 to 10 day Northwest Weather and July 4

2011-06-29T08:43:00.000-07:00
Current numerical forecast models are indicating that the weather through July 4, 2011 is below normal rainfall and average temperatures. Some of the extended forecast models out to July 9 indicate a trough of low pressure that returns close to July 9 so cooler conditions and chance of some showers will return.
The map below indicates a trough of low pressure off the coast on July 9. Map below is 500 mb chart for the 18,000 to 19,000 foot level.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011062900!!/

7 to 10 Day Weather for the Washington Cascades

2011-06-21T09:02:00.000-07:00
The general forecast is for below normal temperatures as we will continue the pattern of an active storm track over the Pacific Northwest. Basically troughs of low pressure and the associated surface lows will drop down from the north to bring cooler conditions at times with some precipitation.

The map below depicts the pattern that we will have over the 7 to 10 day period. The map below is the mean position of the 500 mb map which at about 18,000 to 19,000 foot level. This map is for the period June 28 to July 4 and indicates a trough of low pressure off the coast of Washington. The bottom line with this pattern is below normal temperatures so the Northwest will continue the same pattern that has been in place over the last several months, cooler than normal. However with this pattern there will be some brief periods that will be sunny conditions and average temperatures.
Finally on the map below the green contour lines are the heights which the pressure is at 500 mb. So the line of 5700 is in meters or is 18,810 feet.
When does summer usually start, July 5. We will see if that happens again this year.

10 day weather forecast Pacific Northwest

2011-06-15T06:21:00.000-07:00
Map below is 500 mb level (at about 19,000 feet) and is average position for June 22 through June 28. Of note is the trough of low pressure off the coast of Washington and this has been a typical pattern that we have seen for much of the last several months. The bottom line weather will be temperatures will tend to be below normal, however we can have some brief periods of temperatures close to normal.

7 to 10 weather forecast Cascades and Northwest

2011-06-05T09:46:00.000-07:00
Map below is the average position of the 500 mb map (at about 18,000 foot level) for the June 12 to June 18 period. This map indicates a zonal pattern (westerly flow) into the Cascades and the rest of the Pacific Northwest. This type of pattern will generally bring average temperatures and close to average precipitation. However, lower confidence in this extended forecast as the models have been inconsistent lately.

7 to 10 day weather trends for the NW

2011-06-01T08:20:00.001-07:00
The map below is the 500 mb chart (for about 19,000 feet) for Saturday June 11. Notice the strong trough of low pressure off the Washington Coast and this frankly looks more like a winter type of pattern. This is the general pattern that we will have for some of June, cool and wet. However for this weekend Saturday June 4 through Monday June 6 we should have a period of some warm temperatures and dry conditions. For Seattle for the month of May precipitation was 180% of normal and temperatures were 3.5 F degrees below normal. Looks like June will follow this pattern.

Contest Guess how much snow at Mt. Rainier Paradise Ranger on June 19, 2011. Go to this web site to enter contest and and see rules. Must have guesses by by early Saturday June 4
http://www.snohomish.org/index.php?page_id=597
The winner gets two of Craig Romano's new books on the North and Central Cascades.

7 to 10 Day Weather- NW

2011-05-25T09:00:00.000-07:00
The map below is the 500 mb chart (for about 19,000 feet) average position on May 30. We continue to have the pattern of a trough of low pressure off the coast which continues the same pattern of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the period between May 25 to May 30 and probably longer. This will continue to leave able snowpack with many trails about 30 days or so behind normal of melting out.

Contest Guess how much snow at Mt. Rainier Paradise Ranger on June 19, 2011. Go to this web site to enter contest and and see rules
http://www.snohomish.org/index.php?page_id=597
The winner gets two of Craig Romano's new books on the North and Central Cascades.

7 to 10 Day Weather Forecast- NW

2011-05-17T12:23:00.000-07:00
The map below is the 500 mb chart (for about 19,000 feet) for Wednesday May 25 and shows a trough of low pressure off the coast. Also notice another trough of low pressure to the north in the Gulf of Alaska. This pattern will tend to bring below average temperatures and normal to slightly above normal precipitation.

Contest Guess how much snow at Mt. Rainier Paradise Ranger on June 19, 2011. Go to this web site to enter contest and and see rules
http://www.snohomish.org/index.php?page_id=597
The winner gets two of Craig Romano's new books on the North and Central Cascades.

10 day forecast

2011-05-11T08:56:00.000-07:00
This 10 day forecast is being issued on May 11, 2011 for the Washington Cascades and Olympics. The map below is the 500 mb chart (at about 18,000 feet) for the period May 16 to May 20. This map is becoming all too common which shows a trough of low pressure off the coast and this will continue the pattern of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The bottom line slow melt of our snowpack.

7 to 10 day forecast

2011-05-04T08:45:00.000-07:00
The map below is the 500 mb chart (at about 18,000 foot level) for Friday May 13. This indicates the continued cool pattern for the Northwest and the forecast would indicate below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Thus the current above average snowpack would continue for the Washington Cascades.

Extended Forecast- Updated April 27, 2011

2011-04-27T10:08:00.000-07:00
The map below is 500 mb (at 19,000 feet) shows ridge of high pressure on Sunday May 1 for dry conditions. Then to the west is a trough of low pressure which will move inland on Monday for the return of wet weather and this will be the trend with the first week of May. Thus below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

Looking for a hike without snow and probably even in the sun with some spring flowers. Check this book out it is great.

Extended Forecast and Desert Hikes

2011-04-19T15:42:00.000-07:00
The extended forecast models contiune the pattern of below normal temperatures and above average precipation. The 500 mb map (about 18,000 foot level) below shows that pattern as a trough of low pressure remains off the coast. This pattern will also bring a slow snow melt for the period April 25 to April 29.

Looking for a hike without snow and probably even in the sun with some spring flowers. Check this book out it is great.

Extended Outlook Issued 4-13-2011

2011-04-13T09:22:00.000-07:00
Below is 500 mb map (at 18,0000 feet) for the period April 20 to April 26. There is a flat ridge of high pressure over the Northwest. Also notice a trough of low pressure near the Gulf of Alaska and this feature will tend to bring weather systems into the Northwest. The bottom line message weather wise is above average precipitation and average to below average temperatures for this period

15 day forecast Issued 2-4-2011

2011-02-04T15:07:00.000-08:00
Winter So Far
The early forecast for the 2010-11 winter for the Northwest was a strong La Nina in place and that usually means above average precipitation and below average temperatures for the Northwest. La Nina is below average sea surface temperatures off the equatorial coast of South America. That usually translates into a good snowpack for the Northwest. However that has not been the case so far.

In many areas of Western Washington during December of 2010 there was above average precipitation and above average temperatures with a heavy rain event with very high freezing levels (what can be usually called a pineapple express). In January we had a similar situation in which there were above average temperatures and average precipitation and another pineapple express.

Given the above weather patterns it is not a surprise that the current snowpack (on the ground) as of 2-4-2011 is at about 60% to 70% of normal for the Central Cascades. The big question is why has this occurred.

What Happened to the Snow
One of the major weather features that has caused this below average snowpack is that we have had an upper level ridge of high pressure that has been over the West Coast for much of the last month (see 500 mb map below which is map from 2-1-2011). 500 mb map is at 18,000 foot level.

This ridge of high pressure has kept the cold air in the Midwest and East Coast for much of the time for those regions and of course they have had several major snow storms this winter.

Will the Snow Return?
What needs to happen for the snow to return to the mountains is that this upper level ridge of high pressure will need to retrograde or move to the west. Sure enough many of the extended forecast models are indicating that. The Climate Predication Center forecast (500 mb map below)for the period February 12 to February 18 indicates that a trough of low pressure is over the Northwest and the upper ridge of high pressure has indeed retrograded to the west. This type of pattern usually brings below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation thus a good pattern for mountain snow.

The European forecast models concur with the US one (Climate Prediction Center) as the 500 mb map below also brings the trough of low pressure over the Northwest for what should be a cooler and wetter pattern.

Summary
Near February 15 the forecast models are indicating a change in the weather patterns that should bring additional snowfall to the Cascades. The big question is how long will this cool and wet pattern remain. It would seem to be in place for at least a week after February 15. However the bigger unanswered question is what the patterns will be as we move into March. One would think with La Nina still in place that a cool and wet pattern will be the rule but we will have to see.

Extended Outlook February 2010 Update El Nino

2010-02-01T08:01:00.000-08:00
Please visit this site every Friday as we plan to post our extended Cascade forecasts.
Click here for current local radar

Forecast February early 2010
My forecast on 10-14-2009 was for the West Cascades to have between 80 to 100% of average snowpack and the East Cascades 75 to 85% of average snowpack. Given the current trends and the forecast through at least February 15 I will need to adjust the numbers downward. The map below (18,000 feet is 500 mb) is becoming the pattern with a ridge of high pressure over the Northwest, trough of low pressure off of California coast and finally a trough of low pressure over the Midwest. All this leads is to below average snowfall for the Northwest through at least the middle of February.

Also of note is that Seattle had the warmest January on record (thanks to Meteorologist Nick Eckstein to getting that data. This data covers 117 years of weather records (1894-2010) in Seattle . So these warm temperatures in Western Washington certainly contributed to the current snow on the ground as of 2-1-2010. As of 2-1-2010 here is snow on the ground as a percent of normal: Mt. Baker 85%, Stevens Pass 76%, Snoq Pass 74%, Mission Ridge 92%, Paradise and White Pass 80%. Based on the current forecast I would think snowpack totals as of 3-1-2010 as of percent of normal would be between 70 to 80% of normal. The biggest wild card is what the totals will be in April and May as this is highly dependent on if the storm tracks that is now aimed for California migrates back to the Northwest. If it does our early spring numbers would be in the 70 to 90% of normal. If the storm track does not then the numbers could go down to 70 to 80% of normal.

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Extended Outlook February 2010- El Nino?

2010-01-29T06:06:00.001-08:00
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Forecast February early 2010
The forecast for early February is for below normal precipitation and above average temperatures. The forecast map below confirms that as one can see a ridge of high pressure that is over the Northwest US at the key forecast level at 500 mb level, 18,000 feet. Also as can be seen is an area of low pressure in Southern California and this is a common theme during El Nino. As of 1-29-2010 locations in the West Cascades (Washington) have between 60 to 85 percent of normal snowpack. Another sign of an El Nino. Will the snow return?? Usually the storm track will migrate from California to Washington once the El Nino starts to weaken. The million dollar is when. Stay tuned!!!

Custom Forecast
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Extended Outlook: 1-29-2010 to 2-2-2010

2010-01-24T08:05:00.000-08:00
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Forecast 1-29 to 2-2
The forecast for 1-29 to 2-2 is for below normal precipitation and above average temperatures. The forecast map below confirms that as one can see a ridge of high pressure that is over the Western US at the key forecast level at 500 mb level, 18,000 feet

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Weekly Update

2009-12-18T08:40:00.001-08:00
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Forecast 12-25 to 12-28
The forecast for 12-25 to 12-28 is for below normal precipitation and the forecast map below confirms that as one can see a ridge of high pressure that is over the Western US at the key forecast level at 500 mb level, 18,000 feet

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Weekly Update

2009-11-26T11:56:00.000-08:00
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Forecast 12-3 to 12-9
The forecast for 12-3 to 12-9 is for below normal precipitation and normal temperatures. The forecast map below confirms that as one can see a ridge of high pressure that is over the Western US at the key forecast level at 500 mb level, 18,000 feet

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2009-10-13T10:50:00.000-07:00
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El Nino Update Issued 10-14-09

There has been much media coverage recently on the El Nino that has formed for this fall and what it means for weather patterns for this winter for the Northwest. Here is a very brief analysis.

Introduction

El Nino is basically above average sea surface temperatures off the equatorial waters of the Pacific and in particular South America. In general and I do mean in a very general sense the Northwest tends to have above average temperatures and below average precipitation when there is an El Nino. These averages are usually the case for strong El Ninos.

Current El Nino

On the attachment number 1 note the current sea surface temperatures anomalies (SST) for September are close to 1 C above average in the area near the equator at 150 degrees longitude. This is the key area that is observed for trends in El Nino and with this at 1 C above average this is considered slightly above average El Nino. The interesting part is this SST has remained unchanged for the last month if one looks at the SST for October 2009. Is this a trend??

The El Nino Forecast (see attachment 2) indicates what 14 different forecast models predict in terms of El Nino. Half of the models have the SST at 1 C above average through December of 2009. However, 4 models have that at number at only 0.50 C above average which is a weak to neutral El Nino. Finally, one model brings the number to 2 C above normal which would be an above average El Nino. Thus, there is not a strong consensus here.

Prior El Ninos and Sea Surface Temperatures

On attachment 3 please note the El Nino of the winter of 1997-98. This was a strong El Nino and had 3 degrees C above average by September 1997. Also note from a strong El Nino for attachment 4 which is from the 1982-83 winter and this had a value of 3 to 4 C degrees above normal. Remember the value now for the same region along the equator is close to 1 C degree above average.

Snow from Prior El Ninos

On attachment 5 there is listed snowfall from Paradise Ranger Station at Mt. Rainier elevation 5500 feet. Although not a comprehensive analysis we have listed three seasonal snowfalls during three strong El Ninos and for two of them snowfall was close to average and the other 85% of normal. Data for the lower elevations sites was not readily available but from this analysis of Paradise one needs to be careful of making conclusions from correlation on El Ninos and snowfall.

2009-2010 Snow Season

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC - US government) which tends to lean heavily on their correlation between an El Nino in place and with that pattern the CPC predicts that the Northwest will get above average temperatures and below average precipitation. Thus, this would lead to a below average snowfall. The International Research Institute (IRI) has the same conclusion as well. The IRI is a cooperative between the US government climate programs and Columbia University.

What is my analysis for snowfall?? I’m assuming that this El Nino will be weak so I think there will be slightly below average snowfall at 5000 foot level for the West Cascades and Olympics. Thus 80 to 100% of normal for these regions. For the East Cascades perhaps closer to 75 to 85% of normal snowfall. However, if the El Nino starts to strengthen than I would lower the snowfall amounts

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Extended Outlook 10-8 to 10-11 2009

2009-09-30T07:55:00.000-07:00
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The above map is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) for October 8. This shows a strong ridge of high pressure over the Northwest and this will bring warm and dry condtions for 10-8 to at least 10-11 and perhaps longer.

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Extended Outlook 10-2 to 10-8 2009

2009-09-25T07:40:00.000-07:00
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The above map is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) for October 2 to October 8. This shows a weak low off the coast and a flat ridge over the NW. This will bring a zonal flow for above average prec. and below average temperatues.

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Extended Outlook September 25, 2009

2009-09-17T13:00:00.000-07:00
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The above map is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) for September 25 and this shows an upper level ridge of high pressure for a dry and warm pattern for early on this day and the prior days. Thus dry weather from Monday 9-21 to least early Friday 9-25

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Extended Outlook September 11, 2009

2009-09-04T06:26:00.000-07:00
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The above map is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) for September 11 and this shows an upper level ridge of high pressure for a dry and warm pattern for this day and perhaps several days beyond that.

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Extended Outlook September 3, 2009

2009-08-26T11:19:00.001-07:00
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The above map is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) for September 3 and this shows an upper level ridge of high pressure for a dry and warm pattern for this day and perhaps several days beyond that.

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Extended Outlook August 12, 2009

2009-08-02T06:14:00.000-07:00
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The above map is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) for August 12 and this shows a trough of low pressure over the to the north of the region and this would tend to bring below average temperatures and normal prec to above normal prec.

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Extended Outlook July 19

2009-07-09T15:54:00.000-07:00
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Update Issued 7-10-09 6:00 am

The above map is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) for July 19 and this shows a trough of low pressure to the north of the region and this would tend to bring below average temperatures and normal prec to above normal prec.

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Extended Outlook July 3 to July 9

2009-06-25T18:13:00.000-07:00
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Update Issued 6-26-09 6:00 am

The above map is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) for July 4 and this shows a strong ridge of high pressure over the West Coast and this would tend to bring above average temperatures and below average rainfall. In fact this should be the pattern through July 9.

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Extended Outlook End of June 2009

2009-06-17T07:37:00.000-07:00
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Update Issued 6-17-09 6:00 am

The above map is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) this shows trough of low pressure off the coast and this should be the pattern between now and towards the end of June. This would bring below normal temperatures and above average prec.

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Extended Outlook Middle of June 2009

2009-06-03T05:33:00.000-07:00
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Update Issued 6-3-09 6:00 am

The above map is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) this shows trough of low pressure just to the north of Washington for Saturday June 13 and that would bring wet and cooler condtions for the Northwest for middle of June.

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Weekly Update: May 26

2009-05-26T06:48:00.000-07:00
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Update Issued 5-26-09 6:00 am

The above map is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) this shows big ridge of high pressure over the West Coast and that would bring sunny and warm condtions for the entire West Coast for early June.

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Weekly Update May 15

2009-05-15T04:30:00.001-07:00
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Friday Update Issued 5-15-09 6:00 am

The above map is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) this shows a trough of low pressure on Sunday May 24, Memorial Day Weekend and that would bring cooler temperatures and chance of showers.

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Weekly Update Friday 5-8-09

2009-05-07T16:38:00.000-07:00
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Friday Update Issued 5-9-09 6:00 am

The above map is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) this shows a flat ridge of high pressure that would bring below normal temperatures.

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Weekly Updat Friday 4-24-09

2009-04-24T11:33:00.000-07:00
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Friday Update Issued 4-24-09 9:00 am
Extended Forecast For Period April 27 to April 30,2009

The above maps is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) and this shows a trough of low pressure to the south of our region on Wednesday 4-29-09. This type of pattern will bring below average temperatures and this seems to be pattern that the Norhtwest is in with these lows dropping down from the north from time to time.

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Weekly Updat Friday 4-17-09

2009-04-16T13:58:00.000-07:00
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Friday Update Issued 4-17-09 9:00 am
Extended Forecast For Period April 21 to April 24,2009

The above maps is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) and this shows a trough of low pressure to the south of our region on Thursday 4-23-09. This type of pattern will bring periods of below average temperatures.

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Weekly Update Friday 4-10-09

2009-04-10T14:19:00.000-07:00
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Friday Update Issued 4-10-09 9:00 am
Extended Forecast For Period April 13 to April 17,2009

The above maps is a 500 mb map (about 18,000 feet) and this shows a trough of low pressure just off the coast. This type of pattern is hard to forecast as the weather is highly dependent on the postion of the low. The further off the coast the greater the chance of dry weather. However, if this low is closer to the coast than above average prec. and below average temperatures woudl be the rule. Time will tell what happens.

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Weekly Update Friday 4-3-09

2009-04-05T05:22:00.000-07:00
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Friday Update Issued 4-3-09 9:00 am
Extended Forecast For Period April 8 to April 15,2009

Forecast models continue pattern of below average temperatures and average to above average precipitation. This is mainly due to the fact that upper level lows continue to drop down from the north and west and were are still having the impacts from a La Nina

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Weekly Update Monday 3-30-09

2009-03-30T08:05:00.000-07:00
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Friday Update Issued Monday 3-30-09 9:00 am
Extended Forecast For Period March 30 to April 10,2009

Forecast models continue pattern of below average temperatures and average to above average precipitation. This is mainly due to the fact that upper level lows continue to drop down from the north and west.

Mountain Weather Seminar March 31, 7 PM
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Weekly Update Friday 3-20-09

2009-03-19T15:54:00.000-07:00
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Friday Update Issued Friday 3-20-09 10:30 am
Extended Forecast For Period March 27 to April 2,2009

Above map confirms the trend that we have seen over the last several weeks as weather systems drop down from the north to bring precipitation on and off to the Northwest.

Mountain Weather Seminar March 31, 7 PM
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Weekly Update Friday 3-6-09

2009-03-06T10:24:00.000-08:00
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Friday Update Issued Friday 3-6-09 10:30 am
Weekend Forecast For Period March 7 and March 8, 2009

Ridge of high pressure will bring a sunny day over the region today. Then on Saturday another cold front moves in to bring the chance of snow to the mountains starting in the morning and continuing for much of the day. There will be snow on Sunday as well. Finally it will be breezy on Saturday afternoon and into Sunday.
Finally, chance of snow in the Puget Sound lowlands over this weekend

Mountain Weather Seminar March 31, 7 PM
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Weekly Update Friday 2-27-09

2009-02-27T14:57:00.000-08:00
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Friday Update Issued Friday 2-27-09 6:30 am
Extended Outlook For Period Monday March 2 to March 7, 2009

Many locations in the West Cascades (at 4500 feet and above) received from 10 to 20 inches of new snow this past Wednesday and Thursday. Will this trend continue? The 10to 15 day forecast models continue the trend of below average temperatures and above average snowfall for the mountains. More lowland snow in March for the Puget Sound? That is possible.

If the map (18,000 feet) above, which is forecast for Tuesday March 3, verifies than the West Cascades should get above average snow. The red arrow shows the storm track that is set up for the week, storms will drop down from the Gulf of Alaska

Mountain Weather Seminar March 31, 7 PM
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Friday update 2-20-09

2009-02-20T06:10:00.000-08:00
Please visit this site every Friday as we plan to post our weekend Cascade forecasts.
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Friday Update Issued Friday 2-20-09 11:30 am
Extended Outlook For Period Tuesday February 24 to March 7, 2009
There is no secret that our snowpack is down given the minor precipitation that has occurred for the period from February 1 to February 19, 2009 as many locations in the Central West Cascades received only 0.43 inches of precipitation (normal for same period is closer to 6.3 inches) Also during this period temperatures were above average by almost 4 degrees. Thus there is small wonder why the snowpack in many places is close to 60% of normal.

We will we getting more snow? The 10 to 15 day forecast models continue to indicate above average precipitation and below average temperatures. I have a high level of confidence on the temperature forecast but just average confidence on the precipitation. However, we are in a La Nina phase (below average sea surface temperatures) and this usually brings below average temperatures and above average precipitation to the Northwest.

If the map (18,000 feet) above, which is forecast for Sunday March 1, verifies than the West Cascades should get a lot of snow.

Mountain Weather Seminar March 31, 7 PM
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for enviromental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Friday update 2-13-09

2009-02-13T11:17:00.001-08:00
Please visit this site every Friday as we plan to post our weekend Cascade forecasts.
Click here for current local radar

Friday Update Issued Friday 2-13-09 11:30 am
A weather system will be to the south of the region during the weekend and will bring some clouds that move up from the south and this will bring the chance of light precipitation at times. The greatest chance will be later today and then again on Sunday. The uncertainty to the forecast is how much precipitation will occur on Sunday and at this point it should be light but lower confidence in this since models have been showing some inconsistency in this. Finally, with this pattern the greatest chance of precipitation will be for an area south of Mt Rainier. This pattern will contiune into Monday as well

Mountain Weather Seminar March 31, 7 PM
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for enviromental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Where is the Snow

2009-02-08T13:58:00.000-08:00
Please visit this site every Friday as we plan to post our weekend Cascade forecasts.
Click here for current local radar
Issued Sunday 2-8-09 8 am, Extended Forecast

The forecast above is for Wednesday 2-11-09 and shows an upper level low off the Oregon Coast and then dives towards the south. This pattern keeps in place till February 21, so the Northwest will have below average temperatures and below average rainfall-snowfall. We will still get some rainfall-snowfall but it will tend to be on the light side. Where is the snow? The Sierra in California and Utah are the winners with this pattern. The data for the snowpack chart is taken from; Data from United States Natural Resources Conservation Service, Division of the USDA ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/wa_swepctnormal_update.pdf

Snowpack as Percent of Normal for Washington 2-8-09

Mountain Weather Seminar March 31, 7 PM
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for enviromental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Friday update

2009-02-06T10:52:00.000-08:00
Please visit this site every Friday as we plan to post our weekend Cascade forecasts.
Click here for current local radar
Issued Friday 2-6-09 11 am

A weak weather system is moving through the region and will bring some light snow showers to the mountains but the amounts should be light from 0.50 to 3 inches of new snow at 4000 feet and above for the West Cascades and Olympic today. Then a weak ridge of high pressure builds on Saturday for dry weather and a good dose of sun for many locations. Then later on Sunday a weather system moves in for the chance of some precipitation for the evening for the South Cascades and Olympics and the rest of the Cascades on Monday.

Extended forecasts indicate new mountain snow for Tuesday 2-10-09 and Wednesday 2-11-09

Mountain Weather Seminar March 31
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

More Snow for the Mountains and Rain for Lowlands?

2009-02-02T06:27:00.000-08:00
Please visit this site every Friday as we plan to post our weekend Cascade forecasts.
Click here for current local radar
Will the Snow Return to the Mountains.

Extended forecast

The recent dry pattern might come to an end soon. Since January 13 Seattle rainfall has been less than 7% of normal. So many people that want rain and or mountain snow might be happy of the trends that we are seeing. The above map is for Sunday 2-8-09 and this indicates an upper level low off (this is 500 mb map at about 18,000 feet) the Washington Coast.This will swing inland and bring snow to the mountains and rain to the lowlands. Several forecast models agree on this so high level of confidence on this forecast. In fact forecast models bring another upper low in on Tuesday 2-10. Thus for Sunday 2-8-09 through Tuesday 2-10 we can expect above average precipation and below normal temperatures. What happens after Tuesday 2-10? That will bring an interesting challenge. Several forecast models indicate below average temperatures and below average precipation for 2-15 till 2-28. However, that is an extended forecast so lower confidence in that

Mountain Weather Seminar March 31
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

Friday Updates

2009-01-30T10:39:00.000-08:00
Please visit this site every Friday as we plan to post our weekend Cascade forecasts.
Click here for current local radar
Issued Friday 1-30-09 11:15 AM PT
A weather system will move in later today and spread precipitation to the region for this afternoon, evening, and into Saturday morning. Then a brief drying trend for Saturday for most regions on Saturday afternoon and for part of Sunday. Then for Sunday another weather system moves in to spread precipitation for the Olympics in the late morning into the West Cascades by the afternoon and into East Cascades late Sunday. Lower confidence in the Sunday forecast given some of the conflicts in the forecast models.

Extended forecast indicates above average prec. for the Cascades and with temperatures forecast to be below normal that will be good for the snowpack

Mountain Weather Seminar March 31
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

Pacific Northwest Extended Outlook

2009-01-24T13:57:00.000-08:00
New Contest
Guess:
This next contest will involve forecasting the temperatures and precipitation for two cities each week over a 11 week period. One of the cites will be from the West Coast the other will be a city not in the west but will be in the United States. To assist you we will provide links with the average temperatures and precipitation and links for forecasts from other sources.
Prize:
Barometric Weather Forecaster by Honeywell.

Click here for picture of this station
Real-time temperature and humidity readings and minimum/maximum temperature histories at the base unit. It also features weather-trend graphics that depict 12- to 24-hour forecasts, a barometric pressure graph, programmable high/low temperature and ice alarms.

Enter
Need to enter by 1-26-09 and fill out form on this site or take content from this pate and email to address below
Click here for link to sign up
Or you can email to WeatherForecastChallenge@yahoo.com

Main forecast page is
Click here for link for information

Extended Outlook from 1-30-09 to 2-7-09
Forecast models are indicating that the strong ridge of high pressure that has been anchored over the West Coast will break down. Several forecast models are indicating above average precipitation and average to below average temperatures during this period. This forecast would be consistent with the current weak La Nina conditions that have currently formed over the equatorial Pacific. During La Nina (Below average sea surface temperatures) the Pacific Northwest normally gets above average precipitation and below average temperatures. Thus, this would be a good trend to add to the snowpack

Extended Outlook- New Contest

2009-01-14T09:19:00.000-08:00
Winner of the last contest for guessing how much snowfall would occur at Sea Tac Airport was Frank L, his guess of 15.7 inches of snowfall from 12-15-08 till 1-15-09 was the winning guess. Actual snowfall was 16.1 inches. Frank will win the Tubbs Men’s Couloir Mountaineer snowshoe donated by K2 Sports www.tubbssnowshoes.com Donated by K2 Sports http://www.k2sports.com/index.html We announced the winner today since it will be dry for the next several days with temperatures above freezing for Sea Tac.

New Contest
Guess:
This next contest will involve forecasting the temperatures and precipitation for two cities each week over a 11 week period. One of the cites will be from the West Coast the other will be a city not in the west but will be in the United States. To assist you we will provide links with the average temperatures and precipitation and links for forecasts from other sources.
Prize:
Barometric Weather Forecaster by Honeywell.

Click here for picture of this station
Real-time temperature and humidity readings and minimum/maximum temperature histories at the base unit. It also features weather-trend graphics that depict 12- to 24-hour forecasts, a barometric pressure graph, programmable high/low temperature and ice alarms.

Enter
Need to enter by 1-26-09 and fill out form on this site or take content from this pate and email to address below
Click here for link to sign up
Or you can email to WeatherForecastChallenge@yahoo.com

Main forecast page is
Click here for link for information

Extended Forecast:
Forecast models indicate a return to cooler conditions starting next Tuesday as a trough of low pressure drops down from the north to bring freezing levels down to about 4000 feet. The wildcard at this point is precipitation as the models continue light amounts of precipitation. Lower confidence in this extended forecast especially as it relates to precipitation

Big Rain Event West Snow East

2008-12-29T10:52:00.001-08:00
Issued Monday 12-29 11 am
A strong weather system will move into the region later on Thursday, New Year's Day to bring some heavy rain to the lowlands of Western Washington. The forecast models have been consistent with this feature so I have a high level of confidence with this. Here are some early tentative rain amounts for the period Thursday New Year's Day 9 am to Friday 1-2-09 9:00 am for many location in Western Washington. Rain totals will be in the 0.75 to 1.25 inch range for this period. Some spots on New Years Day might start out with some light snow early but that will be short lived. For Eastern Washington the forecast is much more difficult since cold air will be in place so snow is certainly a good possibility. The amounts of water equivalent from Thursday New Year's Day from 10 pm to Friday 1-2-09 10 pm is from 0.40 to 0.80 in water equivalent. If that is snow and not rain that would be about 3 to 8 inches of snow.

Finally, the map below is for the forecast period Thursday New Year's Day at 4 pm. This map is 850 mb which is for winds at the 5000 foot level. Notice off the coast the winds are from the southwest at 50 to 80 knots. These winds will tend to draw moisture from the ocean and these strong winds and moisture will shift inland during the evening of New Year's Day and on Friday 1-2-09. Thus, strong winds and heavy precipitation will be the rule. After this front passes snow levels will drop close to the surface for Western Washington on Friday evening 1-2-09 and into Saturday 1-3-09

Warming Trend

2008-12-23T12:21:00.000-08:00

Map above is the 300 mb chart (location of jet stream) for the forecast period ending Sunday night 12-28. Notice the strong winds of about 150 miles per hour at the 30,000 foot level. These strong winds are westerly winds that bring mild moisture in from the Pacific. This west flow is the more typical pattern that we experience of precipitation on and off, freezing levels close to 3000 to 5000 feet. However, we are not expecting the excessively wet and warm (freezing levels close to 10,000 feet) "pineapple express."

With the snow on the ground and warmer temperatures along with rain this might generate some interesting stormwater flows.

This pattern should continue through the end of the year. Then starting January 3, 2009 or so another shot of colder air moves in, however, that is indeed in the extended forecast period so limited confidence. However, if this colder pattern occurs it will not be as cold as this modified arctic air that has been over the region since the middle of December.

Finally we have listed below the forecast for the period this Saturday 12-27 to Wednesday 12-31.

2008-12-15T13:49:00.000-08:00
New Contest

Guess:

How much snowfall will occur at Sea Tac Airport between 12-15-08 till 1-15-09 12:01 AM

Prize:

Tubbs Men’s Couloir or Women’s Mountaineer. Tried and tested, the sleek Couloir lets you set your course with ease and efficiency whether you’re scaling the summit or traversing narrow chutes. The super charged RII Revolution Response pivot system delivers all terrain responsiveness and energy efficiency in deep powder, while Talon™/Python™ crampons engage fully for efficient ascents and descents. Add in the patented, gender specific ActiveFit™ binding and ActiveLift™ heal lift, you’ll quickly discover why this Series leaves the competition in our tracks. www.tubbssnowshoes.com Donated by K2 Sports http://www.k2sports.com/index.html

Enter

To enter contest and find helpful hints
Click here for link to Snohomish County

Seattle Snow Forecast

For this Wednesday a weather system drops from the north to bring snow to the lowlands. Amounts are always tricky but for the Greater Seattle Area it could be in the 1 to 4 inch range.

The temperatures will remain cold and hardy be above freezing between now through the weekend. There is a stronger weather system that moves in this weekend it if conditions are such this could be a major snow storm for the lowlands. Still too way to tell but if temperatures remain below freezing this might be in the 4 to 11 inch snowfall range for the Greater Seattle Area for the Saturday and or Sunday timeframe. Again it is too early to tell but this is worth monitoring.

Michael Fagin

West Coast Weather, LLC

Washington Online Weather

www.wowweather.com

Cascade Mountain Snow Update

2008-12-12T14:25:00.000-08:00
Forecast models continue to indicate above average mountain snow for the forecast period through 12-26-08. The 500 mb (at about 18,000 feet) forecast map for 12-22-08 below shows a trough of low pressure just south of Washington and this pattern is good for mountain snow